Tokyo Metro is and will remain the world's most populated urban area



SiteSearch
About us
Mayor Monitor
Directories
Events
Debate


Growing & shrinking cities
Urbanization in China
Most egalitarian cities
Habitat 2008
World's largest cities
Philippine death squads


City Mayors reports news from towns and cities around the world. Worldwide | Elections | North America | Latin America | Europe | Asia | Africa |


City Mayors ranks the world’s largest, best as well as richest cities and urban areas. It also ranks the cities in individual countries, and provides a list of the capital cities of some 200 sovereign countries. More


City Mayors profiles city leaders from around the world. More


City Mayors describes the history, architecture and politics of the greatest city halls in the world. More


Mayors from The Americas, Europe. Asia, Australia and Africa compete for the World Mayor Award. More


Use
Mayor Monitor to rate the performance of mayors from across the world More


In your opinion: Praise Criticise. Write


City Mayors reports political events, analyses the issues and depicts the main players. More


City Mayors describes and explains the structures and workings of local government in Europe, The Americas, Asia, Australia and Africa. More


City Mayors deals with economic and investment issues affecting towns and cities. More


City Mayors describes and explains financial issues affecting local government. More


City Mayors reports urban environmental developments and examines the challenges faced by cities worldwide. More


City Mayors reports on and discusses urban development issues in developed and developing countries. More


City Mayors reports on developments in urban society and behaviour and reviews relevant research. More


City Mayors invites readers to write about the people in their cities. More


City Mayors examines city brands and marketing. More


City Mayors lists and features urban events, conferences and conventions aimed at urban decision makers and those with an interst in cities worldwide. More



City Mayors deals with urban transport issues in developed and developing countries and features the world’s greatest metro systems. More


City Mayors examines education issues and policies affecting children and adults in urban areas. More


City Mayors investigates health issues affecting urban areas with an emphasis on health in cities in developing countries. More


City Mayors reports on how business developments impact on cities and examines cooperation between cities and the private sector. More


City Mayors examines the contributions history and culture make to urban society and environment. More


City Mayors examines the importance of urban tourism to city economies. More


City Mayors questions those who govern the world’s cities and talks to men and women who contribute to urban society and environment. More


City Mayors profiles national and international organisations representing cities as well as those dealing with urban issues. More


City Mayors reports on major national and international sporting events and their impact on cities. More


City Mayors lists cities and city organisations, profiles individual mayors and provides information on hundreds of urban events. More

Not all cities will benefit
from rising urbanization

A report by UN-Habitat, reviewed by Tann vom Hove

22 November 2008: While more than 70 per cent of the populations of Europe, North America and Latin America are already urban, Asia and Africa, which are predominately rural, with 41 per cent and 39 per cent of their populations living in urban areas, respectively, are in for a major demographic shift.

Join the debate on World Cities

By the middle of the 21st century, the total urban population of the developing world will more than double, increasing from 2.3 billion in 2005 to 5.3 billion in 2050. In the last two decades alone, the urban population of the developing world has grown by an average of 3 million people per week.

Asia is urbanizing rapidly, with approximately 41 per cent of its inhabitants now living in cities. By 2050, Asia will host 63 per cent of the global urban population, or 3.3 billion people. In Asia, the urban transition will occur even earlier than Africa, owing to rapid urban growth rates in China, a country that is expected to be 70 per cent urban by 2050. Urban growth rates in India will be slower; by 2050, 55 per cent of its population, or 900 million people, will live in cities.

According to the report, the rate of change of the urban population in Africa is the highest in the world. If current trends continue, by 2050 half of Africa’s population will be urban. With 1.2 billion people living in cities and towns, African cities will soon host nearly a quarter of the world’s urban population.

Growing cities
In planning for harmonious cities, the report highlights some of the significant changes in the exponential growth of cities around the world. According to the report the main cause of urban growth in most countries is natural increase – when births in cities outpace deaths. In countries with low levels of urbanization, migration is often the primary engine driving city growth, as is the case in various countries in Africa and Asia. In many countries, the largest movements of population are taking place between cities and not from rural to urban areas.

In analyzing city level growth around the world, the report finds that some of the fastest growing cities in the world are in China, where growth rates can be higher than 10 per cent per year; this includes the cities of Chongqing, Xiamen and Shenzhen. This rapid shift has been brought about by the adoption of a pro-urban approach to economic development by the government of China.

In the case of Africa, the report notes that the capitals and primary cities on the continent have the highest growth rate. For example, Niamey, Niger; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; and Lomé, Togo, all grew at an annual rate of 4 per cent or more, while Kigali, the capital of Rwanda, experienced a soaring annual population growth of 8.6 per cent from 2000 to 2005. The authors of the report caution that such urban primacy and concentration of a significant proportion of the national urban population in one city could be bad for business – it distorts the economy, creates imbalances in the distribution of populations and resources and gives rise to different forms of socio-economic disarticulation.

Shrinking cities
An interesting new departure highlighted by the report is the phenomenon of shrinking societies and cities. The populations of 46 countries, including Germany, Italy, Japan, most of the former Soviet states, and several small island states, are expected to be smaller in 2050 than they are now. These demographic trends are reflected at the city level, as well. In the last 30 years, more cities in the developed world shrank than grew.

Negative growth trends are largely associated with cities in North America and Europe, where the number of shrinking cities has increased faster in the last 50 years than the number of expanding cities. In the United States alone, 39 cities have endured population loss.

In the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy, 49, 48 and 34 cities, respectively, shrank in size between 1990 and 2000. A number of cities in countries of the former Soviet bloc are losing their populations. Nearly 100 Russian cities experienced negative growth in the 1990s; in Ukraine, 40 cities experienced population loss.

In the case of cities in the developed world, the report notes that on average, 2.3 million people migrate into developed countries each year. This means that migration – both legal and illegal – accounts for approximately one-third of the urban growth in the developed world. Without migration, the urban population of the developed world would likely decline or remain the same in the coming decades.

Surprisingly enough shrinking cities is not just a problem of developing countries. UN-HABITAT’s analysis of urban growth in Africa from 1990 to 2000 reveals 11 cities that experienced declining populations, of which 10 were small cities. The authors argue that it is possible that some cities lost populations as a result of war, disasters or civil conflicts, but in most cases, population loss has been a transitory process. Recent studies on migration and urbanization in Africa have produced empirical evidence demonstrating new patterns of return migration from urban to rural areas that may have an impact on population decline in the future.



Comment & Debate
City Mayors is inviting its readers to engage in a debate on the issues raised in the article on this page. Please post your comments below. Your comments should deal with the topics of this article and must be legal and ethical. You may also reply to and/or challenge comments of other readers. While we endeavour to publish all relevant comments, we reserve the right to edit them and to reject unsuitable contributions.

Please add your comment
Title of article
Your comment relates to the article on this page:


Your name
Please provide your name as you wish it to be published. It can be your full name, first name, initials or a nickname. (Impersonating someone else is unacceptable.)


Your city and country
Please provide the city and country you live in. (Example: Paris, France)


Your email address
Please provide your email address. (Your email address will NOT be published)


Your comment
If possible, please provide your comment in English, using upper and lower cases. Please mention if you refer to a comment of another reader.









Mayor Monitor allows you to rate the performance of mayors from across the world Full list


Mayor Monitor (MM)
City Mayors introduces Mayor Monitor (MM), which allows residents and non-residents to rate the performance of mayors and highlight their ‘best’ and ‘worst’ decisions. Mayor Monitor uses the widely understood one-to-ten rating system, where '1' signifies an extremely poor performance and '10' ‘an outstanding one. In addition to rating mayors’ performances, citizens are invited to highlight city leaders' best and worst decisions while in office.

Over time, Mayor Monitor will provide a valuable track record of mayors’ successes and failures as well as their popularity among residents and a wider public. The results will be published on the City Mayors website and updated monthly.

The MM list currently includes more than 30 mayors from The Americas, Europe, Asia and Australia Full list