The United States Conference of Mayors
J. Thomas Cochran
1620 Eye Street, NW, Washington
Tel: +1 202 293-7330
Fax: +1 202 293-2352
NYC prepares for future
Large US cities hardest hit by recession
Real estate USA
US subprime mortgage crisis
US metro economies 2006
Florida cities power ahead
Local government finance - USA
US municipal bonds
US community grant eliminated
Metro job growth in the US
Largest US cities
US local government
Top US eCities
Directory of US cities
Poverty in US cities
Business stress worldwide
City Mayors reports news from towns and cities around the world. Worldwide | Elections | North America | Latin America | Europe | Asia | Africa | Events |
Mayors from The Americas, Europe. Asia, Australia and Africa are competing for the annual World Mayor Award. More
City Mayors ranks the world’s largest as well as richest cities and urban areas. It also ranks the cities in individual countries, and provides a list of the capital cities of some 200 sovereign countries. More
City Mayors lists and features urban events, conferences and conventions aimed at urban decision makers and those with an interst in cities worldwide. More
City Mayors reports political events, analyses the issues and depicts the main players. More
City Mayors describes and explains the structures and workings of local government in Europe, The Americas, Asia, Australia and Africa. More
City Mayors profiles city leaders from around the world and questions them about their achievements, policies and aims. More
City Mayors deals with economic and investment issues affecting towns and cities. More
City Mayors reports on how business developments impact on cities and examines cooperation between cities and the private sector. More
City Mayors describes and explains financial issues affecting local government. More
City Mayors reports urban environmental developments and examines the challenges faced by cities worldwide. More
City Mayors reports on and discusses urban development issues in developed and developing countries. More
City Mayors reports on developments in urban society and behaviour and reviews relevant research. More
City Mayors deals with urban transport issues in developed and developing countries and features the world’s greatest metro systems. More
City Mayors examines education issues and policies affecting children and adults in urban areas. More
City Mayors investigates health issues affecting urban areas with an emphasis on health in cities in developing countries. More
City Mayors examines the contributions history and culture make to urban society and environment. More
City Mayors describes the history, architecture and politics of the greatest city halls in the world. More
City Mayors invites readers to write short stories about people in cities around the world. More
City Mayors questions those who govern the world’s cities and talks to men and women who contribute to urban society and environment. More
City Mayors profiles national and international organisations representing cities as well as those dealing with urban issues. More
City Mayors reports on major national and international sporting events and their impact on cities. More
City Mayors lists cities and city organisations, profiles individual mayors and provides information on hundreds of urban events. More
Large US cities suffered
most in recent recession
A report by Global Insight prepared for the US Conference of Mayors
22 January 2005: Large US metropolitan areas were particularly hard hit by the recent US recession. Cities like Los Angeles, New York and Chicago all lost more than 100,000 jobs between March 2001 and November 2004. A full recovery to pre-recession employment levels is not likely to occur before 2007.
Between the start of the recession in March 2001 and November 2004 total employment in the United States fell by 878,000 jobs or 0.66 per cent of the American workforce. Even though employment started growing again in the summer of 2003, the subsequent jobs recovery has been uneven across the states, and the employment growth rate low by post-war standards when coming out of a recession.
Since US metros contain about 84 per cent of total US employment, there were also clearly significant job losses in many of them during the same period. Global Insight on behalf of the US Conference of Mayors analyzed the change in employment between March 2001 and November 2004 for 318 US metro areas to see if there were any patterns in the changes, and also to determine the number of metros whose November 2004 employment was above their March 2001 levels.
The analysis shows that during this period, US metro employment fell by 0.74 per cent, slightly above the national drop of 0.66 per cent. About 93.6 per cent of the employment decline in all 50 states and DC during this period occurred in metro areas. Virtually all of the metro job losses were in the largest metros (i.e., those with populations of more than one million people). By contrast, metro areas with populations of 500,000 persons or less actually gained 272,000 jobs during this period.
November 2004 employment had returned to March 2001 levels in 181 metro areas, however the gainers were generally smaller metros as they accounted for only 47.661 million jobs in November 2004, or 43.2 per cent of total metro employment. November 2004 employment was still below March 2001 levels in 137 metro areas; these were primarily large cities as they had total November 2004 employment of 62.6 million jobs, or 56.8 per cent of total metro employment.
Global Insight next analyzed employment growth rates for the 318 metros during the last year to determine the extent to which metros were benefiting from the gradual rise in employment in the US economy. The consensus estimate is the US economy needs to add at least 150,000 jobs each month to keep the unemployment rate stable by absorbing growth in the labor force, which translated to an annual employment growth rate of 1.38 per cent between November 2003 and November 2004, which the report’s authors refer to as the ‘threshold’ employment growth rate.
They compared metro employment growth rates over the last year to see how many were above and below the threshold. Trends between November 2003 and November 2004 showed that 268 metro areas recorded in increase an employment over the last year; including 138 that had an employment growth rate above the threshold, and 130 with a growth rate below it. Some 50 metro areas saw their employment decline over the last year, with a total loss of just over 100,000 jobs.
Total employment in the 318 metros rose by just over 1.256 million jobs or 1.15 per cent, just below the 1.18 per cent national increase. Large cities accounted for 55.5 per cent of the total increase in employment in the 50 states and DC over the same period.
Finally, Global Insight examined its fall 2004 metro economic forecasts for the 137 metros whose November 2004 employment was still below pre-recession levels. The researchers also determined the year when their total employment would return to pre-recession levels, defined as employment during the first quarter of 2001. The metros whose total employment will take the longest to return to their March 2001 levels are primarily smaller and midsize metros located in the Midwest and Great Lakes states that were historically dependent on manufacturing employment. It is forecast that by 2010 there will be still some 43 metro areas whose employment levels will have failed to reach the levels of early 2001.
Between March 2001 and November 2004, Los Angeles suffered the loss of more than 100,000 jobs or 2.45 per cent of the city’s workforce. Global Insight believes that Los Angeles will not recover its 2001 level of employment until 2007.
Job losses in New York City between march 2001 and November 2004 amounted to almost 180,000 or 4.18 per cent of the workforce. Job recovery to 2001 levels is not expected until 2009.
Chicago lost more than 154,000 jobs between March 2001 and November 2004. The report prepared for the US Conference of Mayors states that recovery is not expected until 2008.